Written by Brian Laughran – Editor-in-Chief
Rahm Emanuel is getting closer and closer to that fraction over 50% of votes needed to avoid a run-off.
A current poll by Ogden and Fry polling has Emanuel at 49% with a major lead over the next closest candidate – Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia, who at the moment of this article being written stands at 23% of the vote.
Emanuel, who has outspent every candidate in the race, is likely depending on an upcoming visit this week from President Barack Obama to give him a nudge over the edge needed to secure his office without the threat of a run-off.
Yet, I question if this visit will be the cure that Emanuel needs.
The only reason that I say this is because Obama’s endorsement of former governor Pat Quinn didn’t seem to help the now ousted governor.
Now, I’m not saying that Obama’s visit is going to hurt Emanuel.
Emanuel used the Obama-clout and his experience in the position of Chief of Staff to his advantage when he was running for office the first time, beating out Gery Chico, Miguel del Valle and Carol Moseley Brawn. Then, Emanuel managed to avoid a run-off, taking 55% of the vote.
But things are different for Emanuel this time around. He has a track record as a mayor. He’s done things that have left people unhappy.
He’s closed schools. He’s made enemies with members of the Chicago Teachers Union, even prompting Karen Lewis to announce that she would challenge Emanuel. (Lewis was, however, diagnosed with a brain tumor and had to pull out of the race.)
Aside from school closings, raising taxes and other policies that have raised eyebrows, there are some who don’t like Emanuel simply because of his personality and the way that he conducts himself and business in the city.
(Sometimes you just can’t help it. I had a hard time taking Mayor Richard M. Daley seriously simply because I thought he had the astounding ability to make the simplest of sentences into incoherent nonsense when he was flustered.)
I don’t have a crystal ball and I won’t tell you who to vote for, but I will say that I think Emanuel will narrowly avoid a run-off. It comes down to the simple fact that Emanuel is simply more recognizable.
He has the clout, he has the money and he has the television spots.
The Teachers Union may not like Emanuel – heck, they may even try to strike again if he gets re-elected – but I don’t think that they’re anger is enough to stop Emanuel from staying in office.
NBC is reporting this week that Emanuel is going to spend over $1 million in television ads for this week alone.
(So if you’re watching TV and notice a lot more of those ads in which Emanuel stands next to a Chicagoan talking about how much they love the mayor, that’s why.)
Nothing is certain and if an April run-off is forced, Emanuel may have a hard time going up against Garcia – who could very well absorb the votes that would have been afforded to the other foils in this election.
However, I don’t see Emanuel getting knocked out of office.
Money wins elections. Money buys TV spots. Money buys bus ads.
It’s a closer election than Emanuel probably wants it to be.
But maybe Emanuel and the other candidates can each take something from this quote from former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani: “I tell candidates, it’s always better to be the candidate with the most money, but you can win without it.”
Come next Wednesday, we’ll know whether Emanuel has to fight another round or whether he will remain the champ.
I guess it will also be interesting to see if Emanuel’s spending strategy…ahem…pays off.